USDA Projections: Exports Decreasing, Imports Increasing in 2023

Web AdminTrade

By Clint Thompson

Fruit and vegetable producers in the Southeast will be disappointed to learn that the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) revised Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 trade forecast projects lower exports and a record imports, according to Seth Meyer, chief economist with the USDA.

He provided the update during the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum held last week. Exports are projected at $184.5 billion following last year’s record exports of $196.4 billion. Imports are projected to reach $199.0 billion.

Increased imports in recent years have challenged domestic producers of strawberries, blueberries, tomatoes, bell peppers, among others. Florida and Georgia growers have long claimed unfair trade. Unfortunately, imports from Mexico are only expected to increase.

Forecasts for imports are up 3% from FY 2022, which was a record year. Horticultural products remain the largest import category. It is forecast for $99.9 billion in FY 2023, or nearly half of the total. Fruits, vegetables and tree nuts comprise almost half of the category. More than half of the other horticultural items are products like distilled spirits, wine and beer, followed by other products like processed foods and ingredients, essential oils, nursery and cut flowers.

Import growth remains the strongest for Mexico, which is the top supplier of agricultural products to the U.S., followed by Canada and the EU.

China remains the top destination for the U.S.’s agricultural exports. FY 2023 exports are projected to fall $2.4 billion from FY 2022’s record of $36.4 billion, reflecting the decline of tree nut exports, among other crops. Exports to Mexico and Canada are expected to decrease slightly.

Exports to Japan are projected $1.2 billion lower than FY 2022, due to decreases in corn, beef and tree nut sales.

Source: USDA